Insight, Analytics and the New Marketing
England Will Win the World Cup
So says a quantitative model from JP Morgan. Analysts Matthew Burgess and Marco Dion used a model designed to predict stock prices and fed it with past scores and Fifa rankings and came to this unauthordox conclusion.
“Having developed a rather successful Quant Model over the years, we intend to introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology to apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football and the World Cup,” they wrote.
Given the reputation of Wall Street “quants” at the moment, doesn’t this seem a little hubristic?
I had my own brush with soccer stardom this week in Sao Paulo, where I spent Monday and Tuesday with Marcello Magalhaes and the wonderful people in the the Ogilvy office there. This is one of the beacons of the Ogilvy network. Check out their work here.
During my short visit, there was a running joke that I would be rewarded with a free T-shirt. And on the last day I was given a Corinthians soccer shirt signed by Ronaldo, in a gesture typical of the Brazilian’s crazy generosity.
Sadly, Ronaldo will not be playing in the world cup this year. Instead, Ogilvy has signed him up for a Twitter campaign for Claro, the country’s largest mobile phone network, in a superb digital influence campaign.
Obviously, as a Scot, I have to assume that the JP Morgan prediction is deeply flawed, and thus that their models are worthless. I have, of course, shorted their stock.
The last time Scotland qualified for the World Cup, in 1998, they were crushed by the Brazilians in their first match. I will, however, this year, be giving my full support to their valiant team.
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