We’re all about to hear a lot more about the US Census. A $400,000 grassroots campaign encouraging people to participate is about to break, leading up to “Census Day”, on 1^st April, 2010.

Although this is a vital institution (be sure to fill in your form!), most of what it will reveal can be already be predicted with amazing accuracy from existing data published by the Census Bureau.

This is what Peter Francese does. For six years now, I’ve had the privilege of working with Peter, Ogilvy’s Director of Demographics, the founder of American Demographics magazine and one of the leading demographers in the country. He has just published a paper: 2010 America; What the 2010 Census Means for Marketing and Advertising, available from Adage. It’s a fascinating snapshot of the constantly changing structure of America.

Peter identifies three main themes.

Firstly, “We are increasingly Southerners and Westerners.” Three out of five residents live in these two regions. And two-thirds of immigrants are headed there.

Secondly, “We are truly a multicultural nation.” Although, at one level, I knew this, I didn’t realize the extent to which it was true: “In our two largest states (California and Texas) and all ten of our largest cities, no racial or ethnic category describes a majority of the population”.

Lastly, “We are a more multi-generational society living in an ever-wider variety of household types”. Again, something I knew, but didn’t fully understand: “The iconic American family – married couples with children – will account for a mere 22% of households”, for example.

For those interested in a truly in-depth study, Sam Robert’s ‘Who We Are Now’ is a detailed breakdown of the structure of the population from the Urban Affairs correspondent of The New York Times. Roberts gives good historical reasons for why the population has shifted in the way it has. It’s six years old now. But, hey, this is demographics, it doesn’t change that fast!

The overall picture we get, reading Peter’s study is one of complex fragmentation. Society, more than ever, is a series of shifting, overlapping mosaics with smaller and smaller pieces. It’s fascinating, but difficult to comprehend.

What’s the implication for marketing? Well, you can argue it either way.

The obvious lesson is that messages should be micro-targeted. We should use more digital marketing and low production costs to version the heck out of every ad, with different support points, offers and even colors for different audiences. And that is undoubtedly part of the future.

Or you could say that such fragmentation calls for marketing with big messages that can transcend different micro audiences with big, universal human truths.

Both views are right.

What most marketers need are sophisticated, integrated campaigns. The sort that can speak broadly and make us feel part of a big group, but who can then switch to talk very specifically us as individuals. These, of course, are the most difficult to create.

It’s probably the last thing we need in marketing today – it being criticized for embracing the very basics of math.  But that’s exactly what Al Ries did in Adage yesterday.  He made some sweeping statements about the state of marketing today, arguing that the marketing community seems to be drifting from “a right-brain approach to a left-brain approach” and that left brain marketers will run companies into the ground by focusing on the numbers.  Calculating ROI, according to Ries, is a waste of time. 

Judging by the responses to the article, the Art vs. Science debate is very much alive in marketing today.  It is also as old as Ries’ thinking.  In 1959 CP Snow did his legendary “Two Cultures” speech at the yearly Rede lecture in Cambridge.  Snow was a novelist who had also studied physics at the famous Cavendish Laboratory alongside Ernest Rutherford.  He had spent his life moving between the literary intelligentsia and the science community, two groups he found to be opposite poles and which he described as two vastly different cultures who speak different languages.  He claims that the lack of mutual respect between the 2 groups creates a polarization which “is a sheer loss to us all.  To us as a people and to our society”.

Although Ries acknowledges that mathematics can play a very small role in marketing, the overall tone of his article is polarizing : it’s either math or marketing.  He fails to see that one of the most interesting areas in marketing today is where the worlds of math and creativity come together in a way that was not possible at the time Snow gave his speech :

“There seems then to be no place where the cultures meet. I am not going to waste time saying that this is a pity. It is much worse than that. Soon I shall come to some practical consequences. But at the heart of thought and creation we are letting some of our best chances go by default. The clashing point of two subjects, two disciplines, two cultures of two galaxies, so far as that goes ought to produce creative chances. In the history of mental activity that has been where some of the break-throughs came.”

Next week Tuesday, Dan Burrier, Chief Creative Officer Ogilvy LA and I will be speaking about this topic at the nGenera conference in Toronto.  I’ll probably post some of the materials here after that. 

You can download CP Snow’s speech on The Two Cultures here.

Segmentations are static and therefore less reliable :

There are different types of segmentations that can be used for different purposes.  Strategic segmentations segment an entire market in a limited number of segments and are generally more static.  They can be incredibly valuable tools for developing a brand positioning, broader go-to market strategies, overall creative directions, new products etc.   Media segmentations need to be linked to the typical demographic profiles that can be used for media planning.  They therefore tend to be more static as well.  Relationship marketing segmentations are highly dynamic in that they use customer interaction data which changes more frequently.  LTV segmentations are an example of this.  If a customer buys a certain product, their LTV score and segment need to be updated accordingly.

Segmentations don’t work because consumers can belong to multiple segments :

The fact that one can describe a consumer in many different ways does not mean that segmenting them is a bad idea.  It means that multiple segmentation layers are needed to describe one consumer.  One should use the most appropriate layer based on what one is trying to achieve. Take the article’s example of the professional who turns into a boyish sports fan in the evening.  If I am selling suits I would probably need a segmentation layer based on people’s professional occupation. If I am selling football shirts I’d look at a leisure segmentation layer. 

Customers prefer to choose their own content :

I completely agree that self disclosed information is incredibly powerful and that we need to give consumers every opportunity to “self select”.  However, that doesn’t mean we have to wait around until consumers choose to interact with us.  Most marketers will still need outbound communications to achieve their commercial goals.  As Kevin Horne (whom I have had the pleasure working with in the past) commented on the post : “If segmentation is dead then so is marketing.”

Everyone should do it the Amazon way :

We have been hearing the Amazon example for years now.  One would think that by now every company would have Amazon’s powerful recommendation algorithms in place.  This clearly isn’t the case.  Amazon has it relatively easy.  They sell books and the books you read reveal a lot about who you are.  Every time you purchase a book from amazon.com you reveal your broad preferences, interests and even lifestyle.  This is hardly the case for the fashion retailer who knows you have bought 2 pairs of socks and a T-shirt over the last 2 months … .  I agree that recommendation rules can be very powerful.  But having a high volume of transactions and a product set that lends itself to this technique makes it a lot easier.

In the end the article’s conclusions seem much less controversial than its title : segmentations will still be critical moving forward and they should be used together with self disclosed data and “Amazon – like” recommendation rules.  It’s hard to disagree with that … .