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	<title>The DoubleThink &#187; ayres</title>
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	<description>The Art &#38; Science of the New Marketing</description>
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		<title>5 data short stories</title>
		<link>http://thedoublethink.com/2009/04/5-data-short-stories/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2009 16:04:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dimitri</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ashenfelter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ayres]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chemistry.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[epagogix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[harrah's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[marketing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moneyball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[numerati]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supercrunchers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thedoublethink.com/?p=12</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a scene in one of the season 1 episodes of Mad Men where Pete Campbell, the ambitious, young account executive defends his trade to his father who thinks Pete could have done something with his life rather than end up in advertising.  

 
I had a similar conversation with my dad about 10 years [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">There is a scene in one of the season 1 episodes of Mad Men where Pete Campbell, the ambitious, young account executive defends his trade to his father who thinks Pete could have done something with his life rather than end up in advertising.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><img src="http://images.nymag.com/images/2/daily/entertainment/08/07/24_benmathislily_lg.jpg" alt="" width="316" height="215" /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"></span> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">I had a similar conversation with my dad about 10 years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">He told me that I could have done a lot more with my math degree than waste it on selling “air” as he called it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>He sells steel for a living … .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>2 years ago I gave him Ian Ayres’ <em><a href="http://www.randomhouse.com/bantamdell/supercrunchers/" target="_blank">Supercrunchers</a></em> for his birthday and last year I gave him Stephen Baker’s <em style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="http://thenumerati.net/" target="_blank">the Numerati</a>.</em><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>He now thinks I have the coolest job on the planet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>If you are in marketing analytics and always struggle to explain your job to friends and family and make it sound interesting, these 2 books are great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They give you the perfect data stories for social occasions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Here are 5 of them for 5 different occasions : </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"><strong>1. You’re in a restaurant : The Bordeaux Equation </strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">A Princeton professor named Orly Ashenfelter created the Bordeaux equation which 0s a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mathematical equation which predicts the quality of a Bordeaux wine year by just looking at winter rainfall and growing season temperatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>He predicted 1989 was a fantastic Bordeaux year which wasn’t hard – everyone in France would agree with that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>However he caused a lot of consternation among wine connoisseurs when he claimed they had overhyped 1986 which according to his equation was actually one of the worst years of the 80’s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"><strong>2. You’re at the movies : Making a Blockbuster</strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">UK</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> company <a href="http://www.epagogix.com/" target="_blank">Epagogix</a> uses statistical techniques to analyze movie scripts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>This allows them to predict whether the script will be a commercial success before the 1<sup>st</sup> scene is shot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They also help studios in developing scripts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They found out that having star actors or a star director is actually not a great predictor of a movie’s success, thereby questioning Hollywood’s business sense of paying them their astronomical wages. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"><strong>3. You’re at the ball game : Moneyball </strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">Most baseball teams these days use advanced statistics to predict how good a player will perform in the future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Michael Lewis wrote his book <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball" target="_blank">Moneyball</a> about how the Oakland A’s pioneered this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They found through statistical analysis that the on base percentage and slugging percentage were by far the best predictors of offensive success.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>The Mets, Yankees, Padres, Red Sox and many others are now using these techniques.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"><strong>4. You’re playing poker : The Pain Threshold</strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">Did you know that Harrah’s monitors all gambling transactions that happen in their casinos through their swipe cards real time?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>They use statistical models to determine the pain threshold for every gambler.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>This is the point at which a person has lost so much that their experience becomes unpleasant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>When high value customers reach this point, Harrah’s will send over a casino worker to invite them for a free meal to ease the pain.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"><strong>5. You’re on a date : The Algorithm of Love</strong></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;">The online dating industry has been hiring armies of statisticians to optimize the algorithms that match one people together.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span><a href="http://chemistry.com" target="_blank">Chemistry.com</a>’s algorithm uses a questionnaire to derive your balance of 4 different hormones : estrogen, testosterone, dopamine and serotonin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">   </span>Apparently these hormones mold our personality and people look for others who complement them and provide them what they are missing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"> </p>
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